Title : Early warning signs in social - ecological networks
نویسندگان
چکیده
17 A number of social-ecological systems exhibit complex behaviour associated with nonlinearities, 18 bifurcations, and interaction with stochastic drivers. These systems are often prone to abrupt 19 and unexpected instabilities and state shifts that emerge as a discontinuous response to gradual 20 changes in environmental drivers. Predicting such behaviours is crucial to the prevention of or 21 preparation for unwanted regime shifts. Recent research in ecology has investigated early 22 warning signs that anticipate the divergence of univariate ecosystem dynamics from a stable 23 attractor. To date, leading indicators of instability in systems with multiple interacting 24 components have remained poorly investigated. This is a major limitation in the understanding 25 of the dynamics of complex social-ecological networks. Here, we develop a theoretical framework 26 to demonstrate that rising variance – measured, for example, by the maximum element of the 27 covariance matrix of the network – is an effective leading indicator of network instability. We 28 show that its reliability and robustness depend more on the sign of the interactions within the 29 network than the network structure or noise intensity. Mutualistic, scale free and small world 30 networks are less stable than their antagonistic or random counterparts but their instability is 31 more reliably predicted by this leading indicator. These results provide new advances in 32 multidimensional early warning analysis and offer a framework to evaluate the resilience of 33 social-ecological networks. 34 35 36 37 peer-reviewed) is the author/funder. All rights reserved. No reuse allowed without permission.
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Early Warning Signs in Social-Ecological Networks
A number of social-ecological systems exhibit complex behaviour associated with nonlinearities, bifurcations, and interaction with stochastic drivers. These systems are often prone to abrupt and unexpected instabilities and state shifts that emerge as a discontinuous response to gradual changes in environmental drivers. Predicting such behaviours is crucial to the prevention of or preparation f...
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